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Posts Tagged ‘pennsylvania’

The exit polls have been pretty off the mark this election season but in a consistent manner. As Brendan Loy notes in this post, the polls have been typically off by 7-8 points in Obama’s direction. This pattern was repeated yesterday — Clinton won Pennsylvania by 9 points when the CNN exit polls earlier in the day predicted she should win by 2.

I guess this is due to a combination of two factors.

1) The pollsters are clueless about weighted sampling and ignorant about the demographics of this contest (or more likely, simply too lazy to implement them): Obama does much better among the young, the affluent, the urban and the educated. A polling strategy that picks up a disproportionate number of such individuals, as would happen, for instance, if the pollsters spent most of their time in the big cities or other easily accessible parts of a state, is bound to go wrong.

2) People are not truthful when asked who they voted for: It may be true that a lot of whites vote for Clinton, then lie that they voted for Obama (so as to not appear racist?)

 

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Obama steps up the populist rhetoric.

“We’re ready to play offense for organized labor,” Obama said. “It’s time we had a President who didn’t choke saying the word ‘union.’ A President who knows it’s the Department of Labor and not the Department of Management.”

I sincerely hope this is just rhetoric. 

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