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Archive for October 15th, 2008

when a 15 year old girl is arrested and charged with second and fifth degree felonies for distributing nude pictures of herself to some classmates.

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The polling seems to be getting stronger for Obama with every passing day. Five Thirty Eight currently gives Obama a 95.8% chance of winning the election, and that is after accounting for some tightening of the polls in the coming weeks.

More astoundingly, no fewer than seven current polls show Obama with a double-digit lead nationally.

Nate Silver writes:

It’s fairly unusual for a candidate to have such a sustained run of momentum so deep into the campaign cycle. And it does appear to be real momentum, with some real feedback loops: the worse McCain’s poll numbers become, the more desperate his campaign looks, and the more desperate his campaign looks, the worse his poll numbers become.

McCain now has to go on a run of his own, a large enough run to wipe at least 8 points off of Obama’s lead, and perhaps more like 9 or 10 to cover his inferior position in the Electoral College and the votes that Obama is banking in early and absentee balloting. It is imperative that McCain does not just draw tomorrow night’s debate, does not just win a victory on points, but emerges with a resounding victory, the sort that leaves the spin room gasping for air. Failing that, we are getting into dead girl, live boy territory.

The question is no longer whether Obama will win, but by how much. The electoral college has a size of 540 EVs. If things continue the way they are, Obama will end up winning close to 400 EVs which would be a stunning landslide.

McCain has to completely destroy Obama in tomorrow’s debate to get his campaign back on track. Unfortunately for him, that is about as likely as Sarah Palin writing a dissertation on the theory of evolution.

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