Posted in politics, tagged clinton, democratic nomination, democratic primaries, election 2008, elections, indiana, north carolina, obama, polls, pollsters, prediction on May 6, 2008 | No Comments »
With all pollsters out with their own versions of what is going to happen in Indiana and North Carolina today, here’s my prediction:
Obama will win North Carolina by 12, Clinton will win Indiana by 7.
We will know the actual results in about ten hours.
Update: With about 99% of the votes counted, Obama is winning in North Carolina by [...]
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Posted in politics, tagged analysis, clinton, democratic nomination, democratic primaries, demographics, election 2008, exit polls, obama, pennsylvania, polls, race, statistics on April 23, 2008 | No Comments »
The exit polls have been pretty off the mark this election season but in a consistent manner. As Brendan Loy notes in this post, the polls have been typically off by 7-8 points in Obama’s direction. This pattern was repeated yesterday — Clinton won Pennsylvania by 9 points when the CNN exit polls earlier in the day predicted she should [...]
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This is good news.
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Posted in news and links, politics, tagged clinton, democratic nomination, election 2008, gallup, obama, opinion polls, polls, rasmussen on March 26, 2008 | No Comments »
Two tracking polls, opposite trends.
Hillary vs Obama : Gallup, Rasmussen.
Look at the period March 15 - March 24.
What to make of it?
Update: Mark Blumenthal points out that at least a large part of this variation can be attributed to statistical ‘noise’.
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Posted in people, politics, tagged american politics, campaign, election 2008, elections, evangelists, huckabee, mike huckabee, miracles, politician, polls, presidential contenders, primary, religion, republican nomination, republican primaries on March 11, 2008 | 3 Comments »
The most telling moment of Mike Huckabee’s campaign came a month ago, when he told a conservative gathering why he wasn’t giving up yet.
“I know people say that the math doesn’t work out,” the Baptist pastor politician said. “Folks, I didn’t major in math. I majored in miracles, and I still believe in those too.”
In many [...]
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Posted in people, politics, tagged andrew sullivan, clinton, democrats, election 2008, healthcare, obama, polls, us presidential elections on February 12, 2008 | No Comments »
Andrew Sullivan writes,
A meme is developing is that support for Obama is all emotion, fantasy, hysteria, etc. There’s no question that the emotions behind Obama are powerful. And any fool can see why. His oratory does what oratory should. He is the greatest public speaker in American life since Reagan….But the strongest case for Obama [...]
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http://www.libertariansforobama.org/
Disclaimer: I am fully aware that Obama is not a libertarian and I disagreee with many of his positions. Nonetheless, as a non-American with a keen interest in American politics I am rooting for him for his positions on matters such as the war in Iraq, civil liberties, foreign policy, free markets and (to a [...]
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