Posted in politics, tagged clinton, democratic nomination, democratic primaries, election 2008, elections, indiana, north carolina, obama, polls, pollsters, prediction on May 6, 2008 | No Comments »
With all pollsters out with their own versions of what is going to happen in Indiana and North Carolina today, here’s my prediction:
Obama will win North Carolina by 12, Clinton will win Indiana by 7.
We will know the actual results in about ten hours.
Update: With about 99% of the votes counted, Obama is winning in North Carolina by [...]
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Posted in politics, tagged analysis, clinton, democratic nomination, democratic primaries, demographics, election 2008, exit polls, obama, pennsylvania, polls, race, statistics on April 23, 2008 | No Comments »
The exit polls have been pretty off the mark this election season but in a consistent manner. As Brendan Loy notes in this post, the polls have been typically off by 7-8 points in Obama’s direction. This pattern was repeated yesterday — Clinton won Pennsylvania by 9 points when the CNN exit polls earlier in the day predicted she should [...]
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Obama steps up the populist rhetoric.
“We’re ready to play offense for organized labor,” Obama said. “It’s time we had a President who didn’t choke saying the word ‘union.’ A President who knows it’s the Department of Labor and not the Department of Management.”
I sincerely hope this is just rhetoric.
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Posted in news and links, politics, tagged clinton, democratic nomination, election 2008, gallup, obama, opinion polls, polls, rasmussen on March 26, 2008 | No Comments »
Two tracking polls, opposite trends.
Hillary vs Obama : Gallup, Rasmussen.
Look at the period March 15 - March 24.
What to make of it?
Update: Mark Blumenthal points out that at least a large part of this variation can be attributed to statistical ‘noise’.
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Posted in news and links, politics, tagged obama, election 2008, democratic nomination, politician, speech, race, wright, race speech, philadelhpia, oratory on March 18, 2008 | No Comments »
My impressions? It was powerful, nuanced, insightful and moving. I wrote yesterday that this speech would be Obama’s sternest test as a politician and an orator. I believe he lived up to it.
For those who missed it, here’s the transcript, though the emotional impact, I suppose, is somewhat muted when one merely reads it.
Update: And here’s the [...]
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Posted in politics, tagged church, democratic nomination, election 2008, faith, obama, pastor, race, religion, rhetoric, speech, wright on March 18, 2008 | 2 Comments »
There is little doubt that the Wright controversy is the biggest crisis that the Obama campaign has faced so far. Some commentators have hastened to declare that it is, in fact, over for Obama. There is virtually no chance of him winning the general election anymore, they claim, even if he somehow manages to cling on to the [...]
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Posted in news and links, politics, tagged 3 am, ad, animated video, animation, cartoon, clinton, democratic nomination, election 2008, funny, Hillary Clinton, humor, obama, parody, red phone, spoof, terrorist on March 12, 2008 | No Comments »
A very funny animated video parodying the Clinton 3 am ad.
(Link via Andrew Sullivan)
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Posted in news and links, politics, tagged obama, election 2008, clinton, funny, democratic nomination, gaffe, youtube, election ad on March 6, 2008 | No Comments »
Unreal and hilarious. What was she thinking?
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Really, this Hillary ad is so bad, it makes you wonder if it was an Obama plant!
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